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OpenOffice.org obeys Moore's Law?

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Kryder's Law, a variation of Moore's Law, describes the trend "magnetic disk areal storage density doubles annually" [1]. In other words, you don't want to know how much I paid for a 40MB Seagate MFM drive in 1989, but today 1000GB drives rule the day for much less money. This increase in capacity follows a predictable trend.

Conversely to Kryder's Law and Moore's Law (which basically describes computers becoming predictably faster), Wirth's Law states software becomes larger, more complex, and slower [2]: in the end the win on one end is washed out by the loss of the other.

Let's compare these laws against OpenOffice.org to see which law wins. We'll measure the installed disk usage of OpenOffice.org for Linux in English as built by Sun Microsystems. The size of OpenOffice.org installation over time fits a linear equation with R2 = 0.858 and an expoential curve with R2 = 0.876: that means it is predictable like Kryder's Law.

Growth in the 1.x version series was slow, but the 2.x versions made up for it. The chart looks odd around versions 1.1.5 and 2.0.0 because they were released 36 days apart. The 3.0.0 beta currently also has a oddly sharp curve that will look more natural when its data point moves over to September 2008.

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