Can There Be Only Two Linuxes?
A week before the spring LinuxWorld tradeshow got underway in Boston in March, Novell's chairman and CEO, Jack Messman, was quoted in the trade press as saying that eventually, when all the dust clears, there would only be two commercial suppliers of the Linux operating system: Red Hat and Novell.
It is tempting to think that markets simplify so quickly and easily, particularly when you are one of the companies that is prognosticating who the survivors will be in any market and you want to assure people that you will be one of them. But Linux, and indeed any open source software project that is backed, fronted, or both by a commercial entity, is not playing by the rules that have prevailed for the first four decades of the information technology business. And that means that such consolidation as Messman is talking about may not be as inevitable as many think and some desire.
Having said that, the history of business does seem to suggest that markets start out with many innovators and then condense into a few dominant players.
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